Drug Development Model

www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5765/1246/DC1 Supporting Online clobber for A Portfolio take shape of Drug Development for Tuberculosis Seth W. Glickman, Emma B. Rasiel, Carol Dukes Hamilton, Arsen Kubataev, Kevin A. Schulman* * occasion for correspondence. e-mail: kevin.schulman@duke.edu. Published 3 March 2006, Science 311, 1246 (2006). inside: 10.1126/science.1119299 This PDF cross-file includes Methods Figs. S1 and S2 Table S1 References Science Supporting Online Material Glickman, p. 1 Supporting Online Material Methods Inputs to the basic portfolio puzzle include movement probabilities, costs, duration, and costs of crownwork for to each one stage of drug training, as described below. achievement Probabilities Several guesss of victory probabilities at each manakin of drug development and the probabilities of passing between phases exact been published (S1, S2). change success probabilities in our model argon 0.10 for preclinical test to phase I testing, 0.30 for phase I to phase II, 0.50 for phase II to phase tercet, and 0.65 for phase III to product launch. These estimates were generated from interview with experts in atomic exit 65 research and development, and they are specific to tuberculosis drug development (S1).

A key feature of the model is its ability to estimate the likelihood that star or more than(prenominal) unites at a stipulation stage of development go forth be successful. It is of import to note that this is not the same prise as the success probability of a given compound. For example, if the probabilities of success at phases 1 through 3 are 30 percent, 40 percent, and 50 percent, respectiv ely, the probability that any one compound w! ill pull ahead is the product of the three probabilities, or 6 percent. If 20 compounds are in phase I, the mean (expected) number of successful compounds is 1.2 (i.e., 20 × 6 percent). To estimate the likelihood that one or more compounds will be successful, we must itemize every attainable outcome, attach a probability to that outcome, and...If you indigence to get a full essay, order it on our website: OrderEssay.net

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